“I don’t see the situation improving”: could the United Kingdom be heading for a recession? | Cost of living crisis

JThese are worrying times for Claire Tasker’s jewelry store. With the soaring cost of living putting acute pressure on households across the country, the Hertfordshire-based silversmith has seen firsthand how consumers are cutting back on spending.

‘If people don’t have money to spend, it’s items like mine that they won’t really think about buying,’ says small business owner, who sells her fine jewelry handmade in her studio in Hitchin.

It’s not just that sales are under pressure. The cost of gold, silver, copper and precious stones used to manufacture its wares also rose dramatically.

“I don’t see it getting any better,” Tasker says. “The cost of living affects me too. There’s the stress of trying to make money, and it’s scary to be self-employed. You don’t have a stable income.

What Tasker is experiencing in Hitchin is a microcosm of the broader economy. Inflation has increased since last summer and there were already signs of the post-Covid recovery running out of steam even before Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine. The economy grew only 0.1% in February and retail sales fell more than expected in March.

UK GDP

In April, cost of living pressures intensified. The average energy bill has increased by £700 per year; Rishi Sunak raised taxes; automobile costs have increased. The biggest squeeze on living standards since the 1950s has made consumers gloomier and far less willing to spend in stores.

For experts, the question is not whether the economy will slow down but whether it’s time to start saying the R word: recession. David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, has no doubts. “Every piece of evidence suggests the recession is coming,” he says.

The prospect of the UK suffering two consecutive quarters of negative output – the technical definition of a recession – was certainly not considered likely by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) when it prepared the forecast for the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. While noting the headwinds facing consumers, the OBR said growth would be 3.8% this year. The International Monetary Fund’s latest global economic outlook predicted growth of 3.7% the strongest of the G7 group of industrialized countries.

The OBR and the IMF predict a sharp slowdown in 2023 but the bad economic news has arrived earlier than expected. Even less gloomy economists than Blanchflower admit that recession risks have increased in recent months. Deutsche Bank says the likelihood of an economic slowdown now stands at almost one in three. With inflation expected to stay higher for longer, pressure on households to retreat will intensify over the summer. For many consumers, this will look like a recession, even though official data indicates otherwise.

If the economy falls into recession, the Treasury and the Bank of England will be blamed for making policy mistakes. A Treasury spokesman said: “We continue to support the economy now. We are providing a £22billion package to ease pressures on households this year and help businesses, including through a tax cut of up to £1,000 for half a million small businesses.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, says Sunak was deceived by not doing more in its spring statement to protect consumers from the coming economic storm.

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves
Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the UK “looks ahead to another year of falling living standards and paltry growth”. Photography: Rex/Shutterstock

“The UK economy has already been sorely tested by the Chancellor’s failure to stimulate business and set out a real plan for growth. We now look forward to another year of declining living standards and paltry growth,” she said.

Labor is calling on the government to hold an emergency budget to head off growing economic risks. With local elections this week, the soaring cost of living could take a heavy toll on conservatives. Reeves said Sunak’s comments it was “stupid” to expect more support showed that the party was disconnected.

“We’re the only major economy to raise taxes on people in the midst of a cost of living crisis and it’s a move that will make conditions even worse for families already feeling the pinch.”

The Treasury rejects the accusation that it fell asleep at the wheel, pointing out that investment will be boosted this year by the super-deduction tax relief, and that the spring statement included tax breaks and reductions in excise duties for motorists. Even so, Sunak’s popularity declined as the cost of living crisis worsened.

Consumer spending could be supported by more than £200bn of savings accumulated by households during the pandemic. However, the savings glut was mostly concentrated among the richest 40% of society, while low-income households lost money. While average wages are unlikely to keep pace with inflation, those in the public sector and precarious zero-hour jobs are expected to lose the most ground this year.

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is expected to respond to an annual inflation rate of 7% – the highest in 30 years – by raising interest rates this week for a fourth straight meeting. City expect a quarter-point rise on Thursday to 1% – the highest level since immediately after the 2008 financial crisis.

Bank of England in London
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates this week. Photography: Thomas Krych/SOPA Images/Rex/Shutterstock

The Bank wants to prevent persistently high inflation from taking hold, but economists warn there is a risk that rising borrowing costs will add to the problems facing businesses and households as the economy is already shaky. Of the five cycles of tightening in the UK since the late 1970s, four have ended in recession.

“By focusing on containing any second-round effects on wages and prices, the Bank risks tipping the economy into recession,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at the firm. of Capital advice. Economy. Although he expects Threadneedle Street to raise interest rates to as much as 3% by 2023, a severe downturn could force him to slow down.

“A slight recession and/or a modest decline in house prices may not deter the Bank too much if price pressures remain strong. But if the economy and/or the housing market is weaker than expected, the Bank might not raise interest rates as much,” he said.

Stephen King, senior economic adviser at HSBC, said central banks had been caught up in rising inflation and there was still speculation it would return to target with only modest rate hikes of interest.

“History suggests that once you have an inflation problem, you have to go through a lot of economic hardship to get rid of it,” King added.

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For Tasker, the situation is complicated by Brexit, as higher shipping costs and delays make it harder to sell to EU customers. During the coronavirus pandemic, it had benefited from booming domestic demand, although this is drying up.

“I have seen a drop in sales since the news broke that there would be increases in energy prices. It’s not just me, it’s through the Facebook groups I’m in with people who have small businesses,” she said.

“If people don’t spend, businesses will close. I’m not sure it’s helpful at all for the economy.

Concerns about the global economy have also increased this week, with data showing growth in manufacturing output in the euro zone. stalled in April, while China’s factory activity contracted at a faster rate as Covid-19 lockdowns hit industrial production and disrupt supply chains.

How are the other major economies doing?

WE

The world’s largest economy contracted unexpectedly in the first quarter. GDP fell 0.4% amid a weaker contribution from trade and lower government spending as Covid aid was withdrawn. Inflation hit 8.5%, the highest in four decades, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Eurozone

Growth slowed to 0.2% in January-March, from 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Germany recovered from a contraction in the final months of last year, but the economy France stagnated, Italy contracted and Spanish growth slowed. Experts warn that the region is at heightened risk of inflation and economic slowdown due to tensions with Russia in the midst of the war in Ukraine, due to dependence on gas imports.

A compressor station of the Jagal gas pipeline stands April 28, 2022 near Mallnow, Germany.
A gas pipeline compressor station in Germany. Photography: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

China

The world’s second-largest economy is under pressure as Beijing’s zero Covid policy has led to major cities shutting down in an attempt to contain the spread of Omicron, weighing on factory output and consumer spending. The impact is expected to ripple through global supply chains, hitting activity in other countries. GDP grew by 1.3% in the first quarter.

Russia

Someone rides a bicycle in front of Saint Basil's Cathedral in Moscow, Russia
Western sanctions were imposed on Russia. Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

Russia is expected to fall into a deep recession this year and next as sweeping Western sanctions imposed after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine impact economic activity. GDP is expected to fall 8-10% in 2022, the largest annual decline since immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. Inflation is expected to reach up to 23%.

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