Week 8 Survivor Social gathering Picks

There are two elite groups within the NFL (Buffalo and Kansas Metropolis), one superb staff (the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles), then all of the others. This state of parity continues to destroy survivor swimming pools, as Week 7 noticed over 54% of the remaining entries eradicated for the fourth time this season. Week 5 is the one case this 12 months the place lower than 39% of gamers have been eradicated (22%).

How did we get to week 7? In a phrase: terribly. In two phrases: fairly terribly. As the nice Kurt Vonnegut mentioned, “so it goes.”

Earlier than we pull ourselves collectively for week 8, let us take a look at the slaughterhouse that was our week 7:

Week 7 Picks

Higher bets: 0-2 (YTD: 5-7)

Lean: 0-1 (ADC: 8-2)

Traps to keep away from: 0 eliminations prevented (YTD: 11)

Let’s transfer on to the choices of week 8!

All BetMGM Lines.

BEST BETS

Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog for the first time in his professional career. His offense has been resistant to objectives, rating twenty seventh in factors per apply after ending third in 2021. It isn’t fully Rodgers’ fault – Inexperienced Bay’s offensive line is extra slippery than Julian Assange and the physique of Packers reception is a room stuffed with Madden Final Staff starter pack gamers. That being mentioned, Rodgers has the seventh worst QBR this 12 months and would not look that sharp. Buffalo’s protection ranks first in DVOA and permits the second-fewest factors per drive, so it isn’t the place to rebound.

The one factor that is been extra disappointing than Inexperienced Bay’s offense is their protection. On paper, it is probably the greatest within the league. On the pitch, nonetheless, it is twenty fifth finest. Josh Allen and the Payments’ offense ranks second in DVOA, factors per drive, factors per sport and completion fee. Whereas the Packers have been busy dropping to Washington Commanders backup Taylor Heinicke, Buffalo was having fun with a bye and gearing up for this prime-time sport. The tables and hearts of Packers followers will break up sunday night.

Solely 13.39% of entries are on the Payments this week, making it the third hottest sport and a terrific choice if you happen to nonetheless have some left. Their finest future worth is in street video games in opposition to Detroit and Chicago.

Matt Eberflus and the Bears lastly use QB Justin Fields in a approach that highlights its strengths. Will this be sufficient in opposition to Favorite Defensive Player of the Year Micah Parsons and a Cowboys protection giving the fewest factors per drive? That’s gonna be a no from me, man. Fields’ inner clock is working about in addition to a Rolex you purchase on the road, which is why he is essentially the most sacked quarterback this season (27). That units up a nightmare state of affairs in opposition to a Dallas protection that leads the NFL in Cross Rush Win Charge (54%), QB strain share (32.3%) and sacks per sport (4.1).

It appears like Ezekiel Elliott miss this contest, which is not unhealthy information if you happen to’re within the “Tony Pollard is best” aspect. Chicago is giving up the third-most speeding yards per sport (149.7) and their protection took a giant hit on Wednesday after they negotiated Robert Quinn to the Eagles.

Dallas is the second hottest selection this week, at 21.76%. Their future worth largely lies in a Week 14 dwelling sport in opposition to the Texas.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the current favorite for most valuable player.  (Photo by Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports)

Buffalo Payments quarterback Josh Allen is the present favourite for Most worthy participant. (Photograph by Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports activities)

LEANS

The Eagles haven’t got many weaknesses. They have been gassed on the bottom a couple of weeks and eased off within the second half of virtually each sport, however the Steelers are the sixth-worst staff on the bottom (87.9 yards per sport) and are averaging 5.9 factors within the second half of this 12 months. Philly’s offense ranks first within the EPA per play and will be capable of bully a Pittsburgh protection by permitting the second-most factors per drive. Like Buffalo, the Eagles have had two weeks to arrange for his or her visiting opponent. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is an aggressive pitcher, however that will not fly in opposition to a Philadelphia secondary stuffed with Ballhawks.

The Eagles are the preferred decide this week at 35.52%. I might solely use Philadelphia if there weren’t many individuals left in your group. They’ve loads of future worth on their schedule.

Greater than half of the Lions’ offensive starters are questionable to play. Their protection has been questionable all season. Motor Metropolis could have coronary heart, however they lack the expertise it’s essential succeed within the NFL. Miami’s racing sport has kicked into excessive gear since Rahim Mostert took over within the backfield. Pair that with a lethal aerial assault from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in opposition to the league’s second-worst protection and Looks like a long shift at Ford Field for Detroit. The Lions delight themselves on their capacity to direct the ball, however the Dolphins protection ranks third in speeding success fee.

Slightly below 10% of entries say welcome to miami, making it the fourth hottest selection. Their future worth is summed up in a Week 12 dwelling sport in opposition to the Texans.

TRAPS TO AVOID

Ought to Derrick Henry and the Titans roll the worst working protection within the league? Sure. Is the road on this sport more fishy than walleye fillets inside a walleye? Additionally, sure.

Tennessee is the fifth hottest sport this week, at 6.47%.

Kevin Stefanski has by no means misplaced to the Bengals in his time as Browns coach. Cincinnati is winless in its final 4 journeys to Cleveland. Their protection is extraordinarily susceptible on the sphere, the place the Browns lead the NFL in speeding the EPA per play.

The Bengals are the sixth hottest decide this week, with a band under 4%.

All of the Falcons need to do on offense is throw the ball. Carolina’s protection, nonetheless, boasts an excellent entrance seven and ranks fourth in EPA per play. I am not anticipating a lot from Panthers QB PJ Walker, but it surely helps that Atlanta has the worst protection within the NFL and can possible be with out its two finest cornerbacks and one among its beginning safeties.

Simply over 2% dance with the Soiled Birds, which is the seventh hottest selection this week.

Stats supplied by Professional Soccer Reference, teamrankings.com, PFF, Soccer Outsiders, ESPN and rbsdm.com (restoration time eliminated).

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